First Spawn Opportunity
The Baron's Alliance first gets the opportunity to spawn when at least 9 turns have passed in the game.
Assuming a city reaches at most 60% public order, it will instantly rebel and come under the control of the Baron's Alliance, led by Simon de Montfort.
Surrounding settlements (barring villages) that are under 155% public order will also come under the control of the Baron's Alliance; until England is reduced to Loyalist towns remaining at least above 155% public order, are isolated from the Baron's Alliance, or have at most 6 settlements still under their control.
Even if the Baron's Alliance is quelled, the flames of rebellion are not however....
If 35 turns have passed without the Baron's Alliance rising up in rebellion, then England will be safe from Civil War for several turns.
Second Spawn Opportunity
Assuming Simon de Montfort did not rebel against the English Crown, then the next possible chance for the Baron's Alliance to form will be at least 50 turns into the game.
Once again, if public order in a settlement reaches at most 60%, the Baron's Alliance will arise in rebellion!
Without Montfort to lead them however, the Alliance will only take surrounding settlements that are at most at 140% unrest. Once again, assuming the Baron's Alliance reaches far enough to take most of England's settlements, England will be left with at least 6 settlements.
Defeating the Baron's Alliance here will not defeat them forever though....
Assuming 70 turns pass by without the Baron's arising in outrage, England will once again be safe from civil war for several turns.
Third Spawn Opportunity
When 90 turns have passed by, once again the Barons will once again being clamoring for more rights!
And yet again, if public order in a settlement reaches at most 60%, the Barons will form an Alliance and arise in rebellion, with surrounding settlements at 140% unrest joining them, and if getting far enough to take most of England's settlements, yet again leaves England with at least 6 settlements.
And yet again, defeating the Barons here won't kill them off forever.
Seesh, England sure has alot of civil wars. Assuming 110 turns pass by, England will once again pass by the threat of civil war for the third time in a row.
Final Spawn Opportunity
130 turns in, the Baron's Alliance comes back to haunt England.
Settlements under 60% public order become the center of rebellion, settlements under 140% join them, England remains with at least 6 settlements.
The Barons remain angry even if defeated.
If 150 turns pass however! Than England will have weathered the storm of the Baron's Alliance and will be forever free from Civil War!
Well, at least for now, there's probably another civil war in the next century, but that's for the future Kings to deal with!
The Baron's Revenge!
Assuming the Baron's Alliance has spawned, but were wiped out, then England will be safe from civil war for a few turns.
However, when England's King dies and a new King is crowned, with at least 10 turns having passed by, and England containing over 15 settlements, then the Baron's Alliance has a chance of returning from the grave to haunt England once again.
Assuming an English settlement is at 70% public order, the Baron's will arise once again to plunge England into yet another Civil War! With settlements under 140% public order once again falling under rebel control, and only at least 6 loyalist settlements remaining as always.
This can also occur when the King is still alive as well! Every turn, if the King's Authority is 5 or below, the Baron's Alliance will seek their chance to strike and grow their power!
In the game's script, this works by having a random number rolled from 0 to 100.
If Authority is 0, and the number rolled at most 33, then settlements under 50% public order will become the center of the rebellion with settlements under 145% public order joining. England will be left with at least 5 settlements.
If Authority is 1, and the number rolled at most 25, then settlements under 60% public order will become the center of the rebellion with settlements under 135% public order joining. England will be left with at least 6 settlements.
If Authority is 2, and the number rolled at most 20, then settlements under 65% public order will become the center of the rebellion with settlements under 130% public order joining. England will be left with at least 6 settlements.
If Authority is 3, and the number rolled at most 15, then settlements under 70% public order will become the center of the rebellion with settlements under 120% public order joining. England will be left with at least 6 settlements.
If Authority is 4, and the number rolled at most 10, then settlements under 80% public order will become the center of the rebellion with settlements under 120% public order joining. England will be left with at least 6 settlements.
If Authority is 5, and the number rolled at most 5, then settlements under 85% public order will become the center of the rebellion with settlements under 120% public order joining. England will be left with at least 6 settlements.
In other words, if the Baron's Alliance spawns, than no matter what, England will always be plagued by the threat of civil war every single turn.
Credits
Much thanks to Withwnar's guide here which explained how the faction_emerge command works: Give a region to another faction via script[www.twcenter.net]
Images were pulled from the Magna Carte, First Barons', Second Barons', and the Despenser War on wikipedia.
Source: https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3114293252
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