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Guide 48

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2021-09-03 13:15:06

Methodology

Basically, I went around with my 1500 luck (max is 1800) and tallied how many troves of each type I opened, and how many epics/legendaries I got from it. Then I repeated that, but without any luck talents. Finally, I took it, made a spreadsheet and applied some statistics.

Results

I continued collecting results until I got a 95% confidence interval of about 5%. That means the number I have should be within 5 percent of the actual drop rate. If I took a 100 of the same size samples, then 95 of those would be within that five percent. I spent more time however on the sample with luck, as you will soon see.

From an Orange Trove, with 1500 luck,

Chance to get an epic or better item: ~50%.

Chance to get a legendary item: ~12%.

From an Green Trove, with 1500 luck,

Chance to get an epic or better item: ~50%.

Chance to get a legendary item: ~50%.

From an Blue Trove, with 1500 luck,

Chance to get an epic or better item: ~15%.

Chance to get a legendary item: ~1%.

In total, I opened about 500 troves with 1500 luck.

Within twenty orange troves with 0 luck, I began to have a lot of doubts. Out of those 20 troves, I got 55% epic, and 30% legendary. That's a combined epic or better chance of 85%. Now obviously, I decided to apply some statistics. If the real chance of getting an epic or higher level item was 55% (max with confidence interval), then the chance of getting an 85% drop rate (or higher) with a sample of twenty would be <1%.

That being the case, I ended the experiment there. For orange troves, adding luck does not make you luckier.

HOWEVER:

It appears that adding luck more accurately moves luck. Although I haven't collected enough data to be able to fully confirm this, and I'm not planning on doing so, it appears that when you have more luck blue troves are significantly more likely to drop epic quality gear. Again though, I don't have a big enough sample to confirm this. If true, adding luck would be a decently good play style for those who choose not to spawn in high resource areas as it considerably increases the odds of you being well geared early on. And while I wasn't tracking it, it also appears to increase the chances of rare items appearing.

Conclusion/TLDR

Adding luck likely increases chance of getting good gear (rare/epic) from lower end troves, at the cost of your chances of getting high end gear (epic/legendary) from high end troves (orange/green).

Source: https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2589789698

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