Act 1 Odds
I went through Act 1 going through every campfire and seeing how many upgrades I could do before my cards were devoured. I wrote down how far I made it each time and after 1000 attempts these are the percentages and how many times I made it.
1st Upgrade: 100% 1000 Successful
2nd Upgrade: 82.6% 826 Successful
3rd Upgrade: 47.3% 473 Successful
4th Upgrade: 22.3% 223 Successful
5th Upgrade 9.5% 95 Successful
Kaycce's Mod Odds
When I first played Kaycce's Mod I quickly noticed that your odds are significantly lower than the base game. This was much faster for me to get the numbers for this considering I could just restart my run and most runs have a campfire at the start.
1st Upgrade 100% 1000 Successful
2nd Upgrade 39.6% 396 Successful
Conclusion
Now of course this isn't the most accurate way to figure it out. Considering I could just be lucky or unlucky. But anyway this is what I got.
Source: https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2702728496
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